Ideas don’t feel novel because they are incremental. Each new idea is built on a foundation of ideas. Novel ideas often require us to step back to uncover their value from first principles. Don’t be afraid to share ideas.
This article mirrors most of my feelings about writing. Writing is the only way to improve writing. Writing more and putting more work into each work is the only way forward.
This interesting article by Vitalik Buterin discusses the usefulness of prediction markets in supplementing traditional news. Biases in both tend to cancel out and give better results:
If you are a bettor, then you can deposit to Polymarket, and for you it’s a betting site. If you are not a bettor, then you can read the charts, and for you it’s a news site.
Vitalik comes to some interesting conclusions:
Info finance solves trust problems that people actually have. A common concern of this era is the lack of knowledge (and worse, lack of consensus) about whom to trust, in political, scientific and commercial contexts. Info finance applications could help be part of the solution.
I’ve been listening to podcasts more but it takes at least five business days to complete one. I’m currently listening to Gwern on Dwarkesh Podcast. Today, I found a short summary of the five-hour Lex Friedman Podcast with Dario Amodei.
I’m very unsure about AI regulation or what it should look like. It’s a rabbit hole I plan on exploring soon.
I also read a very based take on travel. I was in a dream scenario these past three years where I was paid to travel. As much as I was grateful for the opportunity, I decided to switch gears and stay put to try something different. I’m sure it would be difficult to explain this to friends and family, but thankfully, I have been secretive about my job, and there’s nothing to explain.